Is there a probabilistic model behind the economic cycles theory?

Publié le par mayilou brialy

1929, 1987, 1997 and 2008... What comes to mind when you remember that key years? For sure, you remember the great depression, the second financial crisis from USA, the Asiatic financial markets crash and the last financial crisis symbolized by Lemon Brothers bankruptcy (every body knows that the real root cause related to that crisis is the sub-primes crisis which had been triggered by the US real estate market in 2007)....

I read some papers and learned that some eminent economists have foretold the coming financial crisis (I`m talking about the financial crisis not the economic crisis, both concepts are different) for this year... Did you notice why? Did you see any logic behind the above progression? If you have eagle eyes, you certainly noticed that the three last financial crises dates follow approximately an arithmetical progression. In fact, we had that last 29 years a stock market crash at least every 10 years, I mean 1987, 1997 and 2008. If this is accurate, the coming financial crisis should happen in 2018. But, the so called specialists we`re talking here predicted that krash for this year. Maybe, since 2008+8= 2016, I believe that ones based their prediction on that analysis. However, if this is accurate, why we did not have any stock market crash between 1933 and 1987? (the systemic crisis from 1973 was not triggered by an anomaly in the worldwide financial system, but by the first oil shock).

So, I will appreciate if anyone could help to demonstrate the fundamentals behind the economic cycle theory (since as you, any economic crisis come from a financial crisis, I mean, the companies repayment capacities).

NB: For your information, the solution should be mathematically logic and similar to the cycloid issue raised by B. Pascal few centuries ago. If not, any significant change in the nature of the real worldwide economy that last decades should be studied. .

Thank you

Brialy

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